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The aim of this WP is to examine the mid-term and appraise the long-term impacts of socioeconomic transformations caused by the corona-pandemic, migrants and refugee influx, and digitalization of work. The social phenomena to be examined are animated into contexts in which major social divisions (e.g. social class, gender, and ethnicity) remain active and traverse them. Accordingly, it proposed to take such social divisions on board in delineating the impact that the four phenomena exert on European democracies. All four social phenomena under scrutiny entail a path dependent dimension. They have/are occurring in conditions that in themselves, as they deviate from ordinary regularity, require government and state immediate and extraordinary intervention. This materializes without, usually, the extensive consultation and the bridging of different viewpoints that smooth out contention and are most important for the building of trust in the political sphere. As extraordinary the phenomena under discussion open the door to commandism in government/state action (Harding 1981), with democratic consultation thwarted. In this they tend to cultivate mistrust and to that extent weaken democracy. In this context earlier established patterns and rules of conduct, radius of operation and power of authority that are legally binding (or not), between aspects of state apparatuses and aspects of civil society, such as the various independent authorities that provide expertise, offer a key to the spread or containment of trust in extraordinary situations. This may be the case under the proviso that such independent authorities or more open modes of consultation and decision taking have been established and obtained a substantial measure of acceptance by the general population earlier, before the extraordinary conditions crop up. In this sense the social phenomena under discussion operate in arrangements already established, are path dependent. Accordingly, they may or may not relate and impact on the building of trust which affects European democracies.
Work Package Leader: Prof. Sokratis Koniordos, University of Peloponnese, Greece.
WORK PLAN AND DELIVERABLES
Task 3.1.1. Literature review: impact of Covid-19 pandemic on democratic attitudes and trust
The report examines the impact of COVID-19 on democratic attitudes and trust across Europe, analyzing the complex interplay between pandemic measures and political legitimacy. The pandemic, which began in late 2019, led governments to implement restrictive measures, including lockdowns and vaccination programs, sparking public discontent. The report explores how these measures affected perceptions of democracy and trust in institutions. Four sections structure the analysis. The first reviews academic literature from 13 European countries, highlighting themes in democratic responses to the pandemic. The second maps trust in institutions, using data from 30 European countries, uncovering variations in trust levels across governments, parliaments, courts, and law enforcement over 2008–2022. The third section focuses on trust in governments during COVID-19, noting how high trust correlated with less stringent lockdowns and voluntary compliance. However, it also facilitated free-riding on protective measures. Conversely, low trust fueled discontent with government responses and democracy, intertwining vaccine hesitancy and anti-democratic mobilizations. Finally, the fourth section examines vaccine hesitancy and protests in Europe, identifying key drivers and variations across countries. It explores the paradox between vocal opposition and widespread vaccination, using case studies from Italy, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Ukraine. The findings reveal that attitudes toward democracy and trust shaped pandemic responses and outcomes, highlighting the need for nuanced policies to address public grievances and reinforce institutional legitimacy in times of crisis.
Task 3.1.2. Literature review: impact of migration on democratic attitudes and trust
The aim of this report is to examine the past literature and public opinion research data addressing the causal relations between political trust on one hand and the phenomenon of immigration on the other. The report shall contribute to the TRUEDEM project’s overall agenda on examining the trends, patterns and predictors of political trust in European democracies and shall inform the eventual policy recommendations on the relevant tools to mediate the potential negative implications of immigration for political trust and public support in Europe. The report is structured as follows. First, we describe firefly the recent immigration trends in European countries, including the number of migrants and the countries of the origin as well as the share of migrant population in every country. We then proceed to develop the theoretical framework of the study outlining the specific mechanisms through which the phenomenon immigration might affect political trust in the country. The then examine the available literature to document the state of the art of the studied issue. We turn to the findings of the latest ESS round on immigration and political trust to explore the correlations. Section four in the report discusses the EU policies aimed to tackle immigration. Finally, the last chapter of the report is dedicated to the national case-studied produced with the contribution of the TRUEDEM national teams. The overall goal of this report is to set up the theoretical and methodological framework for the consolidating reports in WP3 – D3.4. Democratic narrative around the socio-economic transformations and D3.5 Consolidated report on the implications of socioeconomic transformations for democratic attitudes, political participation and trust.
Task 3.1.3. Literature review: impact of digitalization of work on political attitudes, participation, and trust
The aim of this report is to examine the past literature and public opinion research data addressing the causal relations between political trust on one hand and the phenomenon of immigration on the other. The report shall contribute to the TRUEDEM project’s overall agenda on examining the trends, patterns and predictors of political trust in European democracies and shall inform the eventual policy recommendations on the relevant tools to mediate the potential negative implications of immigration for political trust and public support in Europe. The report is structured as follows. First, we describe firefly the recent immigration trends in European countries, including the number of migrants and the countries of the origin as well as the share of migrant population in every country. We then proceed to develop the theoretical framework of the study outlining the specific mechanisms through which the phenomenon immigration might affect political trust in the country. The then examine the available literature to document the state of the art of the studied issue. We turn to the findings of the latest ESS round on immigration and political trust to explore the correlations. Section four in the report discusses the EU policies aimed to tackle immigration. Finally, the last chapter of the report is dedicated to the national case-studied produced with the contribution of the TRUEDEM national teams. The overall goal of this report is to set up the theoretical and methodological framework for the consolidating reports in WP3 – D3.4. Democratic narrative around the socio-economic transformations and D3.5 Consolidated report on the implications of socioeconomic transformations for democratic attitudes, political participation and trust.
Tasks 3.2.1. Delineating transformative power of social phenomena: Report on EU Parliamentary debates.
The report explores how the European Parliament debates three transformative social phenomena—migration, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the digitalization of work—through the lens of trust in EU institutions and member-state cooperation. It examines parliamentary transcripts from 2016 to 2024, focusing on how political trust influences policymaking, public perception, and inter-state collaboration. Migration debates highlight tensions between member states over burden-sharing, with calls for solidarity contrasted by resistance from countries prioritizing national sovereignty. Trust was framed as essential for cooperation, yet undermined by accusations of inaction or overreach. The COVID-19 section analyzes trust's role in public compliance with health measures and intergovernmental coordination. Initial mismanagement eroded trust, while later successes in vaccine distribution partially restored confidence. Debates also underscored the tension between public health measures and democratic values. Discussions on digitalization emphasized trust in regulatory frameworks and the EU’s role in safeguarding workers' rights and addressing ethical challenges posed by AI. Divergent positions reflected regional and ideological differences, particularly regarding oversight and equity in digital transformations. Across these themes, trust emerges as a multifaceted concept shaping debates, strategies, and perceptions within the EU. The report concludes that maintaining institutional transparency, fostering solidarity, and balancing national and collective interests are key to navigating these socio-economic transformations effectively.
Tasks 3.2.2. Delineating transformative power of social phenomena: Consolidated report on the implications of socioeconomic transformations for political trust.
In this task, we will address three major and transformative social phenomena: a) the COVID-19 pandemic; b) migration & refugee waves (from the Ukraine, Syria, and other points of origin); c) digitalization of work. These three phenomena act as case studies of recent/ongoing crises of global impact. Their study will begin with a dedicated review per phenomenon, by scoping the relevant literature in scientific peer- reviewed journals and official sources of information, e.g. Eurostat, OECD, ILO, IOM, WHO, ECDC. Following this, to map the different political positions on the three phenomena in TRUEDEM participating countries and get a sense of the scale and reasoning provided by opposing sides, each project partner will systematically examine the minutes of relevant parliamentary debates at the plenum of each partner county’s parliament, and report the main arguments used.
Altogether by studying specific country profiles with different outlooks (traditional, modern, and post-modern) (WP4), background and rising social inequalities (WP4), and attitudes in response to three major social phenomena, this WP will identify and reflect on the socioeconomic pathways to the shaping of democracy (D3.5).
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