WP5. ​New Identities and Emerging Cleavages: Implications for Political Polarization

The aim of this WP is to address the substantial and even fundamental changes regarding the socio-political and socioeconomic cleavages in European societies, including such trends as: erosion of old and emergence of new political cleavages; shift towards the axiological cleavage/s; radicalization of political attitudes and increased polarization; strengthening of ´bad civil society´; erosion of old identities and party alignments; emergence of new social movements and political parties; decline in party membership, individualization of citizens attitudes. Analysis conducted analysis in this WP will contribute to identifying and reflecting the most important emerging cleavages and polarizing trends related with the general trends of (de)globalization and (counter)cosmopolitism, as well as internal division between and among European regions and within the EU-member states societies (new and/or transformed socio-economic divisions, intergeneration conflicts, gender, new forms of nativism and nationalism etc.).

Work Package Leader: Prof. Ladislav Cabada, Metropolitan University Prague, Czechia.

Task 5.1. Methodological framework paper.

The aim of this theoretical and methodological paper is to present the current Political Science and, more broadly, Social Sciences debate on the contemporary development of identities and cleavages, and their impact and consequences of this development on political polarisation. Alongside this, we seek to show the interconnection between political polarisation on one hand, and trust and trustworthiness on the other. In the first part of the paper, we reflect on the composition of the most important “post-Rokkanian” cleavages in contemporary Europe and the Western world. Our analysis reflects three levels, i.e. national (looking for specific national cleavages embedded in specific national heritages); (macro)regional (reflecting the assumed specificities concerning the East-West axis, but also North-South); and European. On the basis of previous work, we suggest that current forms of polarisation within European societies and the societies of the EU Member States emerge as a set of new and reshaped cleavages. Based on the continuity of crises (fiscal and financial, migration, COVID-19, etc.), which are generally referred to as poly-crisis, we can observe the emergence of two “ideal-typical” social groups, referred to as “cosmopolitan liberals” and “counter-cosmopolitan traditionalists”. Such development is accompanied by the polarisation of European and, more generally, Western societies. In particular, some of the aforementioned crises have exacerbated such polarisation between the “winners” and “losers” of the transformation from (post)modern industrial society towards a knowledge and information society. Finally, we show how the above-mentioned transformations of identities and polarisation can be captured by research. Here we specifically highlight the paradigmatic tension between socio-economically and socio-culturally based approaches and explanations.

Task 5.2. Electronic database.

To identify the quantitative indicators for the comprehensive assessment of political polarization, this WP will review the secondary data sources databases of polarization indicators and complete a comprehensive quantitative database for 1990-2022 (which will then be made available for the public) (D5.2). The electronic database will be available in free access (and for downloading in SPSS, Stata, SAS, R, csv formats) at the project website. The electronic database will be updated through the course of project duration (and possibly after that) thus contributing to the long-lasting effects of the project.

Task 5.3. Political polarization long-term trends and emerging patterns.

The analysis in the WP will build on the earlier studies focusing on polarization (European Values Survey, Varieties of Democracy, IDEA). The analysis will reflect three analytical levels: (1) the national (search for specific national cleavages embedded in the national legacies); (2) the (macro)regional (reflecting the assumed specifics regarding the East-West, but also North-South axis); and (3) the European. Based on the findings from qualitative expert interviews (WP8) and data on the recent trends and prospects of societal and political cleavages shaping the European societies (D5.1), this WP will produce a report discussing the longterm dynamics in polarization at the European, (macro)regional and national level. The report will be used as a source to tailor policy recommendations (WP10) aimed at weakening the political polarization and promoting the centripetal solutions.