WP5. ​New Identities and Emerging Cleavages: Implications for Political Polarization

Task 5.1. Methodological framework paper.

The aim of this theoretical and methodological paper is to present the current Political Science and, more broadly, Social Sciences debate on the contemporary development of identities and cleavages, and their impact and consequences of this development on political polarisation. Alongside this, we seek to show the interconnection between political polarisation on one hand, and trust and trustworthiness on the other. In the first part of the paper, we reflect on the composition of the most important “post-Rokkanian” cleavages in contemporary Europe and the Western world. Our analysis reflects three levels, i.e. national (looking for specific national cleavages embedded in specific national heritages); (macro)regional (reflecting the assumed specificities concerning the East-West axis, but also North-South); and European. On the basis of previous work, we suggest that current forms of polarisation within European societies and the societies of the EU Member States emerge as a set of new and reshaped cleavages. Based on the continuity of crises (fiscal and financial, migration, COVID-19, etc.), which are generally referred to as poly-crisis, we can observe the emergence of two “ideal-typical” social groups, referred to as “cosmopolitan liberals” and “counter-cosmopolitan traditionalists”. Such development is accompanied by the polarisation of European and, more generally, Western societies. In particular, some of the aforementioned crises have exacerbated such polarisation between the “winners” and “losers” of the transformation from (post)modern industrial society towards a knowledge and information society. Finally, we show how the above-mentioned transformations of identities and polarisation can be captured by research. Here we specifically highlight the paradigmatic tension between socio-economically and socio-culturally based approaches and explanations.

Task 5.2. Electronic database.

The report examines long-term trends in political polarization across European democracies from 1990 to 2022, with a focus on the interplay between political trust, cleavages, and polarization. It highlights the gradual weakening of traditional cleavages, such as class-based divisions, and the rise of cultural and ideological divides driven by post-materialist values and globalization. The findings underscore the shift from stable partisan alignments to issue-based and identity-driven political competition, which has fragmented party systems and increased electoral volatility. Political polarization is conceptualized through ideological dispersion and affective polarization, reflecting both policy disagreements and social divisions. While moderate polarization can enhance democratic engagement and clarify political choices, extreme polarization undermines trust, cooperation, and institutional legitimacy, posing risks to democratic stability. Factors such as economic insecurity, cultural backlash, and regional disparities exacerbate these dynamics, with higher polarization linked to lower political trust and increased populist support. The report synthesizes data from various sources, including the Manifesto Project and V-Dem, to analyze polarization at individual, national, and regional levels. It also introduces innovative methodologies, such as examining polarization through social media dynamics and regional volatility measures. By addressing the evolving cleavages and their impact on trust and democratic resilience, the report offers a comprehensive framework for understanding the challenges of political polarization in contemporary Europe and provides insights for fostering inclusivity and reducing ideological divides. 

Task 5.3. Political polarization long-term trends and emerging patterns.

The report explores long-term trends and emerging patterns of political polarization in Europe, examining its impact on trust in political institutions and democracy. It identifies ideological polarization as a central feature, shaped by evolving socio-political cleavages driven by modernization, globalization, and crises. The study highlights the shift from class-based to multidimensional party systems, where issue-based and cultural cleavages dominate political competition. Using data from the Eurobarometer and the Manifesto Project, the report analyzes polarization across 30 European democracies between 1990 and 2019. It finds a gradual increase in polarization, particularly in domains like the political system, welfare, and societal fabric. However, polarization's effects on trust are domain-specific. For example, higher polarization on "freedom and democracy" issues correlates with declining trust in parties and parliaments. Conversely, divergence on "social groups" issues appears to enhance trust in political institutions. The findings suggest a nuanced relationship between polarization and trust, with implications for the stability of representative democracies. While ideological divides can weaken institutional legitimacy and fuel populism, they also reflect evolving political demands and identities. The report calls for further research into how political polarization and trust interact over time, particularly in contexts of rising anti-establishment movements and changing party systems. It emphasizes the need for strategies to mitigate extreme polarization while addressing the underlying socio-political transformations driving these dynamics.