WP2. ​Voting and Electoral Behaviour: New Challenges for Inclusiveness and Representativity in Democratic Systems 

The aim of this WP is to explore the significant changes in the electoral behavior of citizens witnessed in the last decades, including the steadily declining turnout in most countries, the growing electoral volatility as shown by the European research and statistical data, an increase in radicalization of voter attitudes and greater polarization. More specifically, electoral results will be analyzed with the aim of identifying patterns of electoral behavior that imply the relationship with European institutions as such. Moreover, we will study the evolution of voting participation rates, with the aim to assess the reliability of the different turnout rates and to develop an index that can briefly describe the evolution of turnout. This WP will define a volatility index that could be less exposed to methodological risks and contextual dynamics.

Elections can be analyzed as an indicator of transformations in the relationship between citizens-voters and political institutions, and specifically those of the European Union. Citizens who vote in European elections are motivated by their trust in the European institutions and by the role they can play in solving national and community problems and in satisfying individual and collective needs. Moreover, among the citizens who go to vote there are those who confirm this orientation by supporting political forces that have presented themselves as pro-European, and others who, on the other hand, attribute their consent to parties and actors who have sought to strengthen their electoral appeal precisely by emphasizing the polemic against the European Union and the inadequacy of its policies. These are new political subjects that can be ascribed to the ‘Eurosceptic’ or 'populist' camp because they make the polemic against the elite their strong point. The aim of this WP is to examine the patterns and trends of voting and electoral behavior in the EU and their role in addressing new challenges for inclusiveness and representativity in democratic systems in Europe. 

Work Package Leader: Prof. Domenico Maddaloni, University of Salerno, Italy.

Task 2.1. Quantitative database.

Longitudinal cross-country database “Voter turnout in Europe”, first produced in September 2023 and updated through the project course, will be delivered as a result of data review and harmonization effort (D2.1). Official data of the European and national election results was used; WP2 team worked closely with WP1 team to evaluate and observe the issues related to the standardization and homogeneity of the election databases made available by the national governments. The electronic quantitative database is available to the public through the TRUEDEM project website for downloading and online analysis.

Citation: Fruncillo D., Addeo F., Ammirato M., Delli Paoli A., Maddaloni D. (2023). Longitudinal cross-country database on voter turn-out in European countries. TRUEDEM: Trust in European Democracies Project (www.truedem.eu). 

Task 2.2. Infographics set.

Data on the mid- to long-term trends in voters’ turnout has been transformed into a set of infographic materials (D2.2) produced in different European languages and prepared for all EU member-states (see for the full version of D2.2). The infographics will be distributed as a part of project dissemination effort in workshops and conferences.

Kuzina I., Kizilov O., Danilenko I., Pedchenko, O. (2023). Infographics on European and National elections. Working Paper no 2.2. TRUEDEM: Trust in European Democracies Project (www.truedem.eu). 

Task 2.3. Voter turnout trends.

Elections results will be analyzed with the aim of identifying the dynamics of electoral behavior that imply the relationship with European institutions as such. The aspects we will focus on in this part of the research will concern voting behavior, which includes the decision to participate in the elections and, consequently, the choice of party or candidate in the strict sense. These two aspects can be interpreted as an implicit consent to the national and European institutions. These aspects will first be analyzed through the electoral results in the individual countries using the official data made available by the national governments. First the turnout rates for each country will be assessed (D2.3). Since it has been rightly observed that turnout levels are not in themselves an indicator of a "malaise" we will assess for each country the evolution of voting participation rates. We will adopt different ways of calculating turnout levels and observe their evolution to identify the countries where the decline in turnout is most marked in recent years. We will also assess the reliability of the different rates of turnout and develop an index that can briefly describe the evolution of turnout. Secondly, since in general and until a few years ago European consultations were considered second order elections, we will also evaluate the differences between the turnout in European Parliament elections and national elections in order to derive indications of our hypothesis that the growing importance of the European Union is also matched by a greater attention of a higher number of citizens towards European consultations. Finally, these same analyses will be developed by aggregating the different countries of the European Union based on two criteria: the time of their accession to the Union (founding fathers, first and second enlargement of the Union) and then their geographical location (Mediterranean area, Central European area, Northern Europe, Eastern Europe). These aggregations will make it possible to assess whether - and to what extent - the influence of geopolitical variables, the consolidation of democratic practices, and the custom of "Europeanist positioning" can be detected.

Task 2.4. Electoral volatility assessment.

Electoral volatility will be calculated based on the hypothesis that it may be the aggregate manifestation of a weakening of traditional political forces in the face of the challenge of new populist actors (D2.4). Analysis will be conducted by observing electoral volatility in different countries and over time. The evaluation of the volatility indices with reference to the aggregations of countries according to the criteria set out above will be developed with greater caution, i.e. considering the sensitivity of these indices to the characteristics of the format of the national party system. The aim is also to define a way of calculating the volatility index that is less exposed to the contextual dynamics. Subsequently, with reference to the last two decades the evolution of support for the new Eurosceptic and populist parties will be observed as well. For this, we will use of the Manifesto datasets project in which analysis of the political-electoral proposals of the different parties is reported.

Task 2.5. Examining the interplay between voting and political trust.

Based on the analysis of voter turnout trends, electoral volatility as well as primary data collected through the quantitative online survey (WP8) and materials of qualitative interviews and focus-group discussions (WP8), within this task the project team will develop an analytical report deepening the existing knowledge on the interplay between electoral participation and perceptions of electoral integrity on one side, and political trust and attitudes to democracy on the other (D2.5). This analysis will become the knowledge basis for developing democratic innovations (WP9) and policy recommendations (WP10) which can tackle both declining voter turnout and political trust.