Trust and Political Legitimacy in European Governments in the Context of Migration Policy: An Analytical Study of Germany’s Migration Policy 

Nourhan M. ALsamman is a researcher and program coordinator from Qena, Egypt, with extensive experience in program management, monitoring and evaluation, research, and report writing. She has actively participated in national, regional, and international conferences and workshops, including the International Humanitarian Work Standards workshop and the Arab-African Conference for Entrepreneurship and Innovation, where she served as an event coordinator. Passionate about innovation and teamwork, she has also published research papers in political science and the humanities following rigorous scientific methodologies. 

Citation: ALsamman, N. M. (2024). Trust and political legitimacy in European governments in the context of migration policy: An analytical study of Germany’s migration policy. TRUEDEM Blog. https://www.truedem.eu/blog/blog11 

Citizens’ trust in political authorities and government institutions is essential for the stability and continuity of representative democracies. The political legitimacy of a political system determines the quality of governance. Citizens’ support for government policies and procedures and their comfort in adhering to and complying with laws and policies are of utmost importance to the government for the following reasons: First, if citizens have confidence in the state’s right to possess and exercise political power, this creates a favorable environment for the government to formulate and implement its policies. Second, compliance with rules, regulations, and policies creates a better rule of law. Third, citizens are more likely to express their opinions freely in countries that enjoy political legitimacy without engaging in politically motivated violence. Therefore, lack of political trust reduces the degree of compliance with laws.

 As immigration policy has become one of the most prominent and polarizing issues in European countries in recent decades, and citizens in European countries have different opinions about the extent of the strictness of organizing and managing immigration flows to their countries, as European countries have become ethnically diverse as a result of immigration, and in addition to the positive effects of immigration on European societies, such as slowing the trend of population aging and increasing the number of workers in important sectors of the labor market, on the other hand we are witnessing increasing intolerance towards immigrants, which undermines the positive effects of immigration among members of the indigenous majority population.

Thus, citizens' levels of political trust increase or decrease, respectively, if the outcome of a country's immigration policy is consistent or inconsistent with citizens' ideological preferences. Individuals who have low or high trust in political institutions use their negative or positive evaluations as a heuristic in formulating their political preferences. Thus, individuals who have low trust in government institutions tend to restrict the scope of state activities and spending, while individuals who have high trust in government institutions are more open to cooperation and more supportive of government policies and initiatives.

This paper therefore seeks to test the compatibility of government immigration policy with citizens’ trust in national political institutions, using Germany as a case study by using indicators of political trust in the national government, in addition to tracking the dynamics and indicators of immigration, the position of German citizens on immigration and receiving refugees, and the extent of their support for the federal government’s policies on immigration.

On measures of decision-making on complex policy issues, Germany performed roughly the same or worse than the OECD average. A smaller proportion of people in Germany have positive perceptions of complex decision-making than of day-to-day interactions with public institutions, as follows:

1. The majority of Germans (54%) expect the government to be prepared to protect the public in an emergency, compared to an average of 53% across OECD countries.

2. (39%) of Germans expect the government to use the best available evidence to make decisions, which is lower than the average across (OECD) countries of 41%.

3. (29%) of Germans believe that the political system allows them to express their opinions on what the government does or takes in terms of policies. This important driver of trust in the federal government is close to the average across (OECD) countries of 30%. 

We conclude from this that trust in the German federal government is at its lowest level. After measuring the trust of German citizens in government institutions, it is necessary to look at the dynamics of immigration in Germany, the policies taken by the government on this issue, and the attitude of German citizens towards it.

The stated goal of the “paradigm shift” policy is to increase regular migration and reduce irregular migration, and the current German government is trying to achieve this goal through a wide range of measures that include three new pieces of legislation.

The first legislation: regulates the status of migrants in a regular and legal situation, creating pathways for people to move from irregular to regular status. People without a legal status are given a trial period of 18 months during which they are granted temporary legal status. During this period, they work to meet conditions such as income limits, language skills and proof of identity, which may then allow them to switch to a more permanent legal status. The aim of this legislation is to reduce the number of people without a legal status in Germany.

The second legislation: facilitates the acquisition of German citizenship, this legislation aims to reduce the waiting time from eight to five years (and in some cases even three years). Most importantly, Germany is working to change its long-held view that dual citizenship should be discouraged to one that dual citizenship is natural and therefore people will not have to give up their country-of-origin citizenship when applying for German citizenship. The aim is to make the citizenship system in Germany fairer and more welcoming.

Third legislation: Expands legal immigration opportunities for skilled workers to come to Germany, because there is a clear understanding that Germany's economy depends on foreign workers.

German citizens' attitudes towards migration and policies 

There is a strong tradition of refugee protection in Germany, with the majority of Germans believing that countries, including their own, are obligated to accept refugees. On the other hand, there is growing concern about the cultural impact that migration may have in the long term. Most Germans do not hold strong positive or negative views about migrants and refugees, with 59% of Germans concerned about the negative external effects of migration, but at the same time they are open to its 6 potential economic benefits and support the moral obligation to protect migrants and refugees. The figure below shows the German public's opinion on welcoming refugees according to October 2023.

Finally, the trust of German citizens in government institutions is undoubtedly important, because based on this trust, the extent of citizens’ acceptance of government policies on immigration will be determined. However, more importantly, citizens’ acceptance of these policies depends on the extent to which they are consistent with the demands and preferences of individuals, the extent to which they guarantee security for the citizens of the country in the first place, and the extent to which these policies are able to achieve political and economic stability within the country and achieve peaceful coexistence between native immigrant citizens. Acceptance of these policies also depends on the extent to which German citizens accept multiculturalism. Therefore, before laws related to immigration are enacted and legislated, these laws and policies must be presented to citizens and a referendum must be held on them, because this will enhance the efficiency of government institutions and increase their legitimacy and citizens’ confidence in them.

References

1. OECD, Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions 2024 Results - Country Notes: Germany, https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-surveyon-drivers-of-trust-in-public-institutions-2024-results-countrynotes_a8004759-en/germany_9f727e4a-en.html.

2. Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, Migrationsbericht 2022, https://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Forschung/Migrationsberichte/ migrationsbericht-2022.html?nn=447198.

3. Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich / Centre for Eastern Studies, Between hope and illusion Germany’s migration policy, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-report/2024-01-08/between-hopeand-illusion.

4. Simon, S. Immigration policy congruence and political trust: a cross-national analysis among 23 European countries. Acta Polit 59, 145–166 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41269-023-00284-9